And how do I know? (A political pundit or hack I’m not. I don’t even know what a pundit is. I’d guess a small, tippy, leaky boat.)

Two reasons: I’m somewhat informed by news and events and... I trust my gut.
Here’s the news and gut feelings I rely upon:
Liberal leader Ignatieff is rising in the polls
PM Harper is sinking
Ignatieff is smarter and better looking than Harper
PM Harper will be fully aware of this by July

Tomatoes will be ripe in September and Harper will want to throw a big one at Ignatieff
Unity is growing inside the Liberal Party
Discontent, now red hot inside the Conservative Party, will peak in September like red hot chili peppers in my garden
Money in Liberal coffers is growing
My gut says Harper will want to burst that balloon
The recession will worsen
My gut says Harper will want to blame someone else, and soon
Ontario and Quebec is turning against Harper
This is just my gut talking again, but Harper will want to blame someone else for that too
And finally, Harper will call an election in the fall because that's when the pumpkins are ready... and he's almost out of ammo.
***
I think as far as Harper is concerned, “small, tippy, leaky boat” is spot on.
.