Climate Change Concerns: Can we afford our present lifestyle?

[The following two posts were recently listed in separate parts. They are here in one piece for your convenience. No extra charge. gah]

Part 1

Climate Change Concerns: Can we afford our present lifestyle?

Summer is coming. Travel plans are being made. Back deck lovers will eat many a gourmet hotdog and overloaded cheeseburger.

Burp. Life is good.

Maybe too good.

Planet Earth is becoming a pretty expensive piece of real estate to live upon. Fire-, weather- and climate change-related events are coming with higher price tags than ever before. Should we be reducing our spending and saving for tougher times ahead?

Relatively recently we’ve read about Iceland’s volcanic eruptions delaying travel, fires in Alberta driving entire populations from their towns and homes, tsunamis crippling some parts of Japan, floods burying large parts of Australia, tornados flattening towns like Joplin, Missouri. The heavy personal and financial tolls of international disasters seem to be rising.

From Dec. 23, 2009:

“A report from the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters noted that 224 out of 245 international disasters this year were weather-related, causing $15 billion US in economic damage.”

I think the Center for Research must have only been looking at specific kinds of disasters. According to insurance company records, international losses are staggering.

This from The Little Green Handbook:

re The probability of global bankruptcy.


“Perhaps the best and the most convincing short-cut to the problems associated with studying the slow process of climate change and extreme weather lies in weather-related economic losses... i.e., the money we have to pay for weather-induced damage. These records are maintained by insurance companies, and it is in their interest to make them reliable.”

“According to Munich Re, global weather-related economic losses increased from $3 billion per year in 1980 to $80 billion per year at the end of the 20th century.”

(That’s an increase of $77 billion per year in 20 years. Pretty steep. Our years spent on the planet are getting dearer as I speak.)

“Losses per decade increased from $86 billion for 1980 - 89 to $474 billion for 1990 - 99.”

Though I have no records of economic losses for the last, most recent decade, and though not all economic losses were climate-change related, I have to assume global expenses went north.

It begs the question? Can Planet Earth and its inhabitants afford the way humans choose to live?

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Part 2

Climate Change Concerns: Can we afford our present lifestyle?

Economic losses related to weather and climate change increased from $86 billion for 1980 - 89 to $474 billion for 1990 - 99. (pg. 102, Little Green Handbook)

And though I have no numbers for the last, most recent decade, I have to assume global expenses went north.

Ron Nielsen, DSc and author of the Green Handbook asks, “How long can we cope with weather-related economic losses?”

He then answers his own question.

“If global income is substantially greater than the losses, and if it increases at least as fast as the losses, we have nothing to worry about. There will always be enough money to repair the damage. If global income increases more slowly than the losses, it is worthwhile to calculate how long the money will last.”

Okay, someone has to ask, Dr. Nielsen, how long will the money last?

“To estimate this period I have analysed the data for weather-related economic losses and for gross world product (GWP), both expressed in 2001 US dollars. Preliminary examination of the data shows that the prospects are not encouraging, because the losses are increasing much faster than income.

“As we have seen, global weather-related losses per decade increased from $86 billion to $474 billion, or 450 per cent, in the last two decades of the 20th century. However, GWP increased from $291 trillion per decade to $386 trillion, or 33 per cent, during the same period. GWP is still greater than the weather-related losses, but the losses are increasing much faster, and in time they might match global income. That would mean global bankruptcy.”

Okay, someone has to ask, if present trends continue, when will the planet be bankrupt?

“Weather-related economic losses can be fitted by using exponential function. The best fit corresponds to a doubling time of 4.42 years. GWP can be fitted using a polynominal function, which increases slowly and has no doubling time. The two calculated curves cross in 2045. If about that time we decide to repair the damage there will be no money left for anything else.”

Thank you, Dr. Nielsen. I’d give you a parting gift but I don’t think I can afford one.

2045. Bankrupt. If alive, I’ll be 95, closing shutters to protect myself from extreme weather and dipping into my birdhouse money on a pretty regular basis.


So, as I ask in the post’s title, can we afford our present lifestyle, knowing that the costs related to extreme weather - some undoubtedly related to climate change - will get higher? Or, can Planet Earth and its inhabitants afford the way humans choose to live?

If we think long-term and have half a wit of concern for those that follow in our deep footprints on Planet Earth (maybe we’ll have changed the name by 2045 to Junk Star Galactica), the answer must be NO.

I recommend we reduce spending, pay down debt, and save money for the tough, thin times ahead.

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