And though I have no numbers for the last, most recent decade, I have to assume global expenses went north.
Ron Nielsen, DSc and author of the Green Handbook asks, “How long can we cope with weather-related economic losses?”
He then answers his own question.
“If global income is substantially greater than the losses, and if it increases at least as fast as the losses, we have nothing to worry about. There will always be enough money to repair the damage. If global income increases more slowly than the losses, it is worthwhile to calculate how long the money will last.”
Okay, someone has to ask, Dr. Nielsen, how long will the money last?
“To estimate this period I have analysed the data for weather-related economic losses and for gross world product (GWP), both expressed in 2001 US dollars. Preliminary examination of the data shows that the prospects are not encouraging, because the losses are increasing much faster than income.
["Let's not put off all our hard work until tomorrow."]
“As we have seen, global weather-related losses per decade incfreased from $86 billion to $474 billion, or 450 per cent, in the last two decades of the 20th century. However, GWP increased from $291 trillion per decade to $386 trillion, or 33 per cent, during the same period. GWP is still greater than the weather-related losses, but the losses are increasing much faster, and in time they might match global income. That would mean global bankruptcy.”
Okay, someone has to ask, if present trends continue, when will the planet be bankrupt?
“Weather-related economic losses can be fitted by using exponential function. The best fit corresponds to a doubling time of 4.42 years. GWP can be fitted using a polynominal function, which increases slowly and has no doubling time. The two calculated curves cross in 2045. If about that time we decide to repair the damage there will be no money left for anything else.”
Thank you, Dr. Nielsen. I’d give you a parting gift but I don’t think I can afford one.
2045. Bankrupt. If alive, I’ll be 95, closing shutters to protect myself from extreme weather and dipping into my birdhouse money on a pretty regular basis.
So, as I ask in the post’s title, can we afford our present lifestyle, knowing that the costs related to extreme weather - some undoubtedly related to climate change - will get higher? Or, can Planet Earth and its inhabitants afford the way humans choose to live?
If we think long-term and have half a wit of concern for those that follow in our deep footprints on Planet Earth (maybe we’ll have changed the name by 2045 to Junk Star Galactica), the answer must be NO.
So, let’s reduce spending, pay down debt, and save money for the tough, thin times ahead.
***
Please click here for PT 1 Can we afford our present lifestyle?
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2 comments:
"-related losses per decade incfreased from $86 billion to $474 billion, or 450 per cent, in the last two decades of the 20th century. However, GWP increased from $291 trillion per decade to $386 trillion"
Um, $291 trillion is over 600 times larger than $475 billion. Sorry but it will take more than 35 years to get there. Want to know why? because weather related losses are included in GWP figures. The faster weather related losses grow, the fast GWP will grow. They can never cross. Where did this guy buy his math degree? Sheesh.
Thanks for your comment Anonymous.
I agree, $291 trillion is much larger; but its rate of growth to $386 trillion is not keeping pace with extreme weather- and climate-related losses in th time period in question.
It doesn't take a math degree to separate losses from GWP, or to see that global losses may one day be on par with global gains.
Let's look for losses vs gains for the last decade, to see if the trend has accelerated or decelerated.
GHarrison
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