Because I was nearing the end of Climate Wars by Gwynne Dyer I took TLGH (previously read) with me last night on a 40 mile trip, knowing it said a few things about growing debt and economic losses with a global perspective.
(Please visit ‘Read This’ in right hand margin for more details about both books mentioned above, and please click here to link to more information about Climate Wars).
Not only does the author of TLGH discuss growing global debt and economic losses, he links them to climate change.
On page 102 the author asks, are we already experiencing the effects of climate change?
His answer links climate change to intense weather events and growing economic losses, and I think his connections are hard to refute. (Though, of course, there will always be those who will try.)
The author writes:
A study of climate change is not easy, as records must be taken over a long period and it is necessary to distinguish between usual and unusual weather events. It is also necessary to study the frequency as well as the intensity of weather-related events. This is a long and laborious process, but we do have sufficient evidence of climate change.
For example, he mentions that 9 of the 10 warmest years on record happened after 1990, that those and subsequent exceptionally warm years had a well-documented progression of weather-related disasters (e.g., droughts, heavy rainfalls, tropical storms, floods), that tropical cyclones are increasing in number annually, and insurance records show that “the number of natural catastrophes in the world increased from 30 per year in the 1970s to 140 per year at the end of the 20th century (and of the worst 40 natural disasters, only six were not related to the weather.”
The author of TLGH then discusses the probability of global bankruptcy and asks, how long can we cope with weather-related economic losses?
He writes:
If global income is substantially greater than the losses, and if it increases at least as fast as the losses, we have nothing to worry about. There will always be enough money to repair the damage.
If global income increases more slowly than the losses, it is worthwhile to calculate how long the money will last.
In an earlier post, I showed the figures he used related to global income and global economic losses that allowed him to determine that losses are increasing much faster than income.
What I didn’t share at the time was an interesting calculation related to his statement that we appear to be heading toward global bankruptcy.
Here are a few lines about his calculations:
Weather-related economic losses can be fitted by using exponential function. The best fit corresponds to a doubling time of 4.42 years.
(Raise your hand if you missed that class in Gr. 13. Hang in there).
Gross world product can be fitted using a polynomial function, which increases slowly and has no doubling time.
(Again, hang in).
The two calculated curves cross in 2045. If about that time we decide to repair the damage there will be no money left for anything else.
I know that 35 years seems like a lifetime away and climate change, weather-related economic losses and global bankruptcy seem like topics beyond our understanding or ability to control.
But, they’re really not.
TLGH puts many such matters in perspective. Take a look for it.
***
Reading and riding keeps the legs and brain active.
Too active?
.
No comments:
Post a Comment